Using the ERS County Economic Types To Explore Demographic and Economic Trends in Rural Areas

The 2015 ERS County Typology Codes classify all U.S. counties according to six categories of economic dependence: farming, mining, manufacturing, Federal/State government, recreation, and nonspecialized counties. ERS developed this typology to help characterize the socioeconomic diversity of rural America. Counties are usually classified as dependent on a particular sector when the share of employment or earnings in that sector is markedly above the average. While both rural and urban areas are now classified under the typology, this article focuses on how the diversity reflected in the typology can be used to better understand variation in demographic and economic trends in rural areas. The significance of these economic specializations can be seen in population trends for several major county types. Population trends reflect both migration and natural increase (the number of births minus deaths). Short-term changes in population growth largely reflect changing migration patterns, while long-term trends are also influenced by age structure and trends in fertility and mortality.Recreation counties have seen the most robust population growth since 2000. Many of these counties attract retirees and others looking for amenities like open spaces and water views. However, growth in these counties slowed sharply during and after the Great Recession, reflecting declines in discretionary income and mobility associated with the downturn.Population growth in government-dependent counties was also relatively strong in the 2000s before slowing in more recent years. Meanwhile, rural manufacturing counties, hard hit by the recession and its aftermath, went from modest population growth in the early 2000s to slight population decline in more recent years.